The rise and fall of urban concentration in Britain: Zipf, Gibrat and Gini across two centuries
Abstract: City size and growth are the subject of a substantial literature in economic geography and urban economics, but consensus remains elusive on the extent to which key regularities such as Zipf’s Law or Gibrat’s Law holds across space and time. We contribute to this literature by examining city size, rank and growth in Britain […]
A reappraisal of Cumann na nGaedheal economic policy
Abstract: This article surveys the economic policies pursued over the first decade of the Irish Free State. The Cumann na nGaedheal governments of W. T. Cosgrave are argued to have been more pragmatic than ideological in their approach and to have been more successful in their management of the economy than is generally realised. Keywords: […]
Irish GDP Since Independence
Abstract: This paper constructs annual GDP estimates for Ireland (1924-47) to join the first complete official aggregates. The new series is deployed to revisit Ireland’s economic performance in the post-independence decades. Ireland’s economy grew at 1.5 per cent per annum and average living standards improved by 40 per cent. The bulk of this was due […]
Corporate taxes, leverage, and investment: evidence from Nazi-occupied Netherlands
Abstract: We examine the Netherlands around the Second World War, where the occupying Nazi regime overhauled the country’s corporate tax regime and introduced a profit tax of 55 per cent. We estimate that the new tax regime cost investors at least 300 million guilders, an amount equivalent to 5 per cent of Dutch GDP in […]
Three Centuries of Corporate Governance in the UK
Abstract: As articulated by Adam Smith, one of the central issues facing companies is that managers will not run the business in the interests of its owners and will misuse resources. This ultimately has a detrimental consequence for the wealth of the nation. This survey reviews the nature and evolution of the corporate governance of […]
The Ends of 27 Big Depressions
Abstract: How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 […]
What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature
Abstract: What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected […]
The Last Free Traders? Interwar Trade Policy in the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies
Abstract: There has still been too little detailed work on the protectionism that emerged in the wake of the Great Depression. In this paper we explore the experiences of two countries that have been largely neglected in the literature, the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies (NEI). How did these traditionally free-trading economies respond to the […]
Social housing and the spread of population: Evidence from twentieth century Ireland
Abstract: How does housing policy influence the long-run distribution of population? We examine the impact on long-term population dynamics of the world’s first large-scale rural public housing scheme, specifically the case of Ireland’s Labourers Acts. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883–1915 in over 200 […]
The Growth Contribution of Colonial Indian Railways in Comparative Perspective
Abstract: Railways were an important driver of global economic growth in the 19th and early 20th centuries. While their role is well documented in industrial economies, we know less about their macro-economic impact in developing countries. In this paper, we first estimate the aggregate growth impact of Indian railways, one of the largest networks in […]
Historical roots of political extremism: The effects of Nazi occupation of Italy
Abstract: We study the impact of the Italian Civil War and Nazi occupation of Italy in 1943–45 on postwar political outcomes. The Communist Party, which was more active in the resistance movement, gained votes in areas where the Nazi occupation was both longer and harsher, mainly at the expense of centrist parties. This effect persists […]
Deliberate Surrender? The Impact of Interwar Indian Protection
Abstract: What is the role of trade policy in promoting intra-Empire trade? We address the question in the context of interwar India, whose trade policies have been accused of harming British export interests. We quantify the impact of trade policy on the value and composition of Indian imports, using novel disaggregated data on both trade […]
Should History Change The Way We Think About Populism?
Abstract: This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were […]
Tracing Sustainability In The Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates 1850 – 2018
Abstract: We introduce a new database of historical Genuine Savings (GS), an indicator of sustainable development promoted by the World Bank and widely used in contemporary economic research. GS derives from the theoretical work on wealth accounting, and addresses shortcomings in conventional metrics of economic development by incorporating broader measures of saving and investment, including […]
The Nationalist Dilemma: A Global History of Economic Nationalism, 1776–Present
Summary: Nationalists think about the economy, Marvin Suesse argues, and this thinking matters once nationalists hold political power. Many nationalists seek to limit global exchange, but others prioritise economic development. The potential conflict between these two goals shapes nationalist policy making. Drawing on historical case studies from thirty countries – from the American Revolution to […]
Economic Penalties based on Neighborhood, and Wealth Building
Abstract: Building wealth over lifetimes became possible for a broader span of the population in developed countries over the 20th century compared to any time in history. This was driven by more people having the capacity to save because of the expansion of middle-class jobs and education, access to highly developed financial markets, and government […]
Public Good or Public Bad? Indigenous Institutions and the Demand for Public Goods
Abstract: This paper argues that the underprovision of public goods can be partly explained by lower demand from Indigenous groups with high preferences for Indigenous identity and a high capacity for coordination. Examining the post-Mexican Revolution period (1920s-1950s), when the state used the first road network for nation-building, our diff-in-diff analysis shows that pre-colonial political […]
The Highs and the Lows: Bank Failures in Sweden through Inflation and Deflation, 1914-1926
Abstract: This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher’s ‘debt deflation theory’, we employ survival analysis to ‘predict’ which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, […]
Failing to level up? Industrial policy and productivity in interwar Northern Ireland
Abstract: Northern Ireland’s productivity performance has persistently been the worst of any UK region. This is despite having the apparent benefit of subnational industrial policy since the 1920s. Can institutions – through the interaction between business and local policymakers – explain this longstanding productivity gap? Existing literature focuses on post-war policy in Northern Ireland, but […]
No Kin in the Game: Moral Hazard and War in the U.S. Congress
Abstract: We study agency frictions in the United States Congress. We examine the longstanding hypothesis that political elites engage in conflict because they fail to internalize the associated costs. We compare the voting behavior of legislators with draft age sons versus draft age daughters during the conscription-era wars of the20th century. We estimate that having […]
The fiscal state in Africa: Evidence from a century of growth
Abstract: What is the level of state capacity in developing countries today, and what have been its drivers over the past century? We construct a comprehensive new data set of tax and revenue collection for forty-six African polities from 1900 to 2015. Our data show that polities in Africa have been characterized by strong growth […]
Why did shareholder liability disappear?
Abstract: Why did shareholder liability disappear? We address this question by looking at its use by British insurance companies from 1830 until its complete disappearance by 1975. We explore three explanations for its demise: (1) regulation and government-provided policyholder protection meant that it was no longer required; (2) it had become de facto limited; and […]
Business Establishment Opposition to Southern Ireland’s Exit from the United Kingdom
Abstract: After more than a century of political and economic integration, Southern Ireland exited the United Kingdom in 1922. By identifying the leading business firms of the era and the political and religious allegiances of their owners, this paper explores the perspective of the Southern Irish business establishment on the issues involved. While the mass […]
The Smoot-Hawley Trade War
Abstract: We document the outbreak of a trade war after the United States adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested, with many eventually choosing to retaliate with tariffs. Using a new quarterly dataset on bilateral trade for ninety-nine countries, we show that U.S. exports to retaliators fell by 28%–32%. Using […]
The deep roots of rebellion
Abstract: This paper analyzes the triggers of rebellion and documents the historical roots of conflict using a unique dataset at the individual level. Drawing on evidence from the Famine (1845–1850) and its effect on the Irish Revolution (1916–1921), we show how negative shocks can explain social unrest in the long run. These findings are confirmed […]
Capital market development over the long run: the portfolios of UK life assurers over two centuries
Abstract: What shapes and drives capital market development over the long run? In this paper, using the asset portfolios of UK life assurers, we examine the role of regulation, historical contingency, and political reactions to events on the long-run development of the UK capital market. Government response to events such as war, hegemony-secured peace, and […]
Ethnic Fundraising in America and the Irish and Lithuanian Wars of Independence, 1918–1923
Abstract: The close of the First World War signalled a proliferation of newly established nation-states across Europe. However, the unilateral proclamations of these states’ independence did not guarantee their international recognition, nor did it guarantee their financial viability. This article examines the funding of two such states: the unrecognized Lithuanian (1919–23) and Irish (1919–21) republics. […]