Gaia Narciso

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on trade diversion and the labor market in a third country, Vietnam. We exploit variation in Vietnamese exports to the U.S. across industries and districts based on the extent of the U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese imports and provide evidence of a positive effect […]

Abstract: This paper analyzes the triggers of rebellion and documents the historical roots of conflict using a unique dataset at the individual level. Drawing on evidence from the Famine (1845–1850) and its effect on the Irish Revolution (1916–1921), we show how negative shocks can explain social unrest in the long run. These findings are confirmed […]

Abstract: Despite the significant attention paid to the current consequences of globalization for migration behavior, there are few historical accounts of the effect of commodity market integration at the local level. We set our paper within the context of the first globalization era, when migration flows were largely unregulated, and highlight how exogenous shocks in […]