Applying History to Inform Anticipatory AI Governance: Using Foresight and Hindsight to Inform Policymaking
Summary: Artificial intelligence (AI) heralds societal changes that could rival those associated with past transformational general-purpose technologies, such as metallurgy, the steam engine, electricity, and the internet. As with such technologies, AI offers the opportunity for tremendous increases in human well-being while also threatening to destabilize social, governance, economic, and critical infrastructure systems and disempower […]
Religion and Economic Development: Past, Present, and Future
Abstract: This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion’s influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to […]
Financing Innovation: The Role of Patent Examination
Abstract: How does patent examination influence access to finance for innovative firms? We exploit a reform to the UK’s patent system that introduced substantive examination to the patent application process, improving the information available to potential investors on the value of firms’ patents. Using a newly compiled firm-level dataset of exchange-listed corporations, we find that […]
Zombie International Currency: The Pound Sterling 1945–1971
Abstract: This paper examines the international role of sterling during the Bretton Woods era and argues that it was not a competitor to the U.S. dollar. I construct a novel dataset to measure the reserve role of sterling in Europe and sterling area countries. The postwar reserve role of sterling was limited to the sterling […]
The rise and fall of urban concentration in Britain: Zipf, Gibrat and Gini across two centuries
Abstract: City size and growth are the subject of a substantial literature in economic geography and urban economics, but consensus remains elusive on the extent to which key regularities such as Zipf’s Law or Gibrat’s Law holds across space and time. We contribute to this literature by examining city size, rank and growth in Britain […]
Respectable standards of living: The alternative lens of maintenance costs, Britain 1270-1860
Abstract: This paper argues that in all societies there is considerable agreement about what goods and services are needed to provide a decent living, and that this standard can be measured by the expense involved in maintaining people of good standing. Maintenance costs include two components of living costs that are neglected in conventional approaches. […]
Careworn: The Economic History of Caring Labor
Abstract: Economists ignore caring labor since most is provided unpaid. Disregard is unjust, theoretically indefensible, and probably misleading. Valuation requires estimates of time spent and the replacement or opportunity costs of that time. I use the maintenance costs of British workers, costs which cover both the material inputs into upkeep and the domestic services needed […]
Financing UK rail infrastructure: how does today compare with the past?
Summary:In Victorian Britain, hundreds of companies and countless private investors supported railway construction; today, such infrastructure is only financed by the government. Comparing delivery of HS2 and the Great Western Railway suggests that the historical funding model was rather more effective. Cite as: Padraig McKee, Chris Colvin, Financing UK rail infrastructure: how does today compare […]
Is gold a safe haven for investors?
Summary: The price of gold has risen in recent years, highlighting the role of this precious metal as a stable investment. While the value of gold is resilient and protected from inflation, its stability is not guaranteed in times of crisis. Cite as: Philip Fliers, Is gold a safe haven for investors? Economics Observatory (2024) […]
Three Centuries of Corporate Governance in the UK
Abstract: As articulated by Adam Smith, one of the central issues facing companies is that managers will not run the business in the interests of its owners and will misuse resources. This ultimately has a detrimental consequence for the wealth of the nation. This survey reviews the nature and evolution of the corporate governance of […]
The Ends of 27 Big Depressions
Abstract: How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 […]
What can we learn about patents and innovation from the past?
Abstract: The history of industrial revolutions provides valuable insights into how patents and patenting systems influence innovation. It also reveals the extent to which inventors have relied on other ways to protect their ideas, including secrecy, sharing and showcasing them at international exhibitions. Cite as: Stephen Billington, Alan Hanna, Joe Lane, What can we learn […]
What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature
Abstract: What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected […]
Managed decline? Muddling through with the Sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74
Abstract: How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling’s international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the ‘sterling agreements’ of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a […]
Aristocratic Amateurs to Fat Cats? British CEOs in the Twentieth Century
Abstract: This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1,558 CEOs from Britain’s largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion […]
The anatomy of a bubble company: The London Assurance in 1720
Abstract: The London Assurance Company (LA), which incorporated during the bubble of 1720, experienced more dramatic price movements in its shares than the South Sea Company. This paper examines how incorporating during the bubble affected its long run performance. We show that the bubble in the Company’s share price was partly attributable to changes in […]
Should History Change The Way We Think About Populism?
Abstract: This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were […]
Tracing Sustainability In The Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates 1850 – 2018
Abstract: We introduce a new database of historical Genuine Savings (GS), an indicator of sustainable development promoted by the World Bank and widely used in contemporary economic research. GS derives from the theoretical work on wealth accounting, and addresses shortcomings in conventional metrics of economic development by incorporating broader measures of saving and investment, including […]
The Nationalist Dilemma: A Global History of Economic Nationalism, 1776–Present
Summary: Nationalists think about the economy, Marvin Suesse argues, and this thinking matters once nationalists hold political power. Many nationalists seek to limit global exchange, but others prioritise economic development. The potential conflict between these two goals shapes nationalist policy making. Drawing on historical case studies from thirty countries – from the American Revolution to […]
Was Marshall Right? Managerial Failure and Corporate Ownership in Edwardian Britain
Abstract: Alfred Marshall argued that the malaise of public companies in Edwardian Britain was due to the separation of ownership from control and a lack of professional management. In this paper, we examine the ownership and control of the c.1,700 largest British companies in 1911. We find that most public companies had a separation of […]
‘Clause and effect’: Invention and state intervention during the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars
Abstract: Did the outbreak of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars influence technical change during the Industrial Revolution? We address this question by investigating an instance of state intervention into the market for inventions from 1793-1820: the introduction of a new proviso into British patents compelling inventors to supply the military, and also attracting military […]
Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010
Abstract: This paper constructs a new chronology of the business cycle in the United Kingdom from 1700 on an annual basis and from 1920 on a quarterly basis to 2010. The new chronology points to several observations about the business cycle. First, the cycle has significantly increased in duration and amplitude over time. Second, contractions […]
Why did shareholder liability disappear?
Abstract: Why did shareholder liability disappear? We address this question by looking at its use by British insurance companies from 1830 until its complete disappearance by 1975. We explore three explanations for its demise: (1) regulation and government-provided policyholder protection meant that it was no longer required; (2) it had become de facto limited; and […]
‘The Best Job in the World’: Breadwinning and the Capture of Household Labor in Nineteenth and Early Twentieth-Century British Coalmining
Abstract: This article explores the effects of gender inequality and women’s disempowerment in the context of historical coalmining. Across the United States and Europe, ex-coalmining regions are characterized by significant deprivation. While there are many reasons for persistent problems, this study focuses on the restrictions imposed on women’s involvement in economic life. Families in mining […]
Business Establishment Opposition to Southern Ireland’s Exit from the United Kingdom
Abstract: After more than a century of political and economic integration, Southern Ireland exited the United Kingdom in 1922. By identifying the leading business firms of the era and the political and religious allegiances of their owners, this paper explores the perspective of the Southern Irish business establishment on the issues involved. While the mass […]
The birth of inflation targeting: why did the ERM crisis happen?
Abstract: In September 1992, the UK was forced to withdraw from the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, as it was unable to keep the value of the pound above the limit specified by the agreement. There are lessons from three decades ago for today’s bout of high inflation. Cite this article: John […]
Sticky wages and the Great Depression: evidence from the United Kingdom
Abstract: How sticky were wages during the Great Depression? Although classic accounts emphasise the importance of nominal rigidity in amplifying deflationary shocks, the evidence is limited. In this paper, I calculate the degree of nominal wage rigidity in the United Kingdom between the wars using new granular data covering millions of wages. I find that […]
and 
by