The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises: A Narrative Approach
Abstract: This paper investigates the causal effects of sovereign debt crises in a sample of 50 defaulting economies between 1870 and 2010. As default is potentially endogenous, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous episodes. We find economically and statistically significant costs of up to 3.2 percent of GDP before recovering to the […]
Applied Economic History as Practical Historicism: Encouraging Policymakers to Reason with the Past
Abstract: This paper examines how applied history can contribute to policymaking when understood as a way of structuring judgement under uncertainty rather than as a source of policy lessons or predictions. It argues that economic history is particularly well suited to facilitating this role because it combines institutional analysis with disciplined comparison of plausible alternatives […]
Financing Late Industrialization: Evidence from the State Bank of the Russian Empire
Abstract: Gerschenkron (1962) argued that public institutions such as the State Bank of the Russian Empire spurred the country’s industrialization. We test this assertion by exploiting plant-level variation in access to State Bank branches using a unique geocoded factory data set. Employing an identification strategy based on geographical distances between banks and factories, our results […]
Urban Accounting and Welfare in Spain
Abstract: This paper uses a novel dataset and the general equilibrium model in Desmet and Rossi-Hansberg (2013) to analyze the Spanish city size distribution, which is driven by three city-specific characteristics: productivity, amenities, and frictions. Counterfactual simulations show that removing cross-city variation in these characteristics leads to welfare gains and population shifts in Spain larger […]
Popular Fundraising in the Greater War: Patriotic War Bonds and the Rebirth of Poland
Abstract: This article explores the patriotic war bonds of the Second Polish Republic, which were sold both domestically and to the diaspora in the United States, during Poland’s border conflicts of 1918–21. It reveals how government and grassroots initiatives converged to mobilise diverse constituencies in Poland, including ethnic minorities, women and the poor. In the […]
Credibility is not enough: Fiscal monetization and currency depreciation in early-modern Venice
Abstract: This paper focuses on an early unique experiment of managed float of State-issued money, implemented in Venice between 1619 and 1666. Building on a new hand-collected database from a previously unused archival source, we show that, despite the Venetian Banco ducat’s status as an international currency and the government’s fiscal credibility, the exchange rate […]
Why are corporations terminated? A century of evidence from the Netherlands
Abstract: We identify all 196 Dutch exchange-listed corporations that halted their operations and ceased to exist between 1903 and 1996. We then explain these terminations using unique hand-collected accounting and governance data and regression techniques suited to long-run comparative analysis. Although Dutch bankruptcy laws remained unchanged across the twentieth century, patterns of corporate exit shifted […]
Do Firms Issue More Equity When Markets Become More Liquid? The Case of Imperial Germany, 1898–1913
Abstract: Based on new aggregated data on initial and seasoned equity offerings (IPOs and SEOs) on the Berlin Stock Exchange before the First World War on a monthly basis and in combination with several other available datasets, we test the hypothesis presented by Hanselaar, René Stulz, and Mathijs (2019. Do Firms Issue More Equity when […]
Home-Country Internet and Immigrants’ Well-Being
Abstract: This paper documents the effects of home-country internet expansion on immigrants’ health and subjective well-being (SWB). Combining data from the European Social Survey with data on 3G and overall internet expansion, I find that immigrants’ SWB increases following home-country internet expansion. This result is observed in two-way fixed effects and event study frameworks. The […]
Patently Peculiar: Patents and Innovation in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands
Abstract: We examine the accessibility and functioning of the patent system in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, a state that existed between 1815 and 1830. The country’s patent law combined an examination process with significant government discretion over a patent’s duration and cost. Using our hand-collected database of all patent applications—granted, withdrawn, and rejected—we […]
Dividend Policy: An Empirical Analysis for Imperial Germany
Abstract: In the German Empire, corporations almost always paid a dividend to their shareholders. Dividends have been cut or increased in line with the development of profits. We demonstrate that the target dividend and the average dividend tended to be nearly the same. If the dividend paid deviated from the target, we measure an extraordinarily […]
Religion and Economic Development: Past, Present, and Future
Abstract: This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion’s influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to […]
Of the bovine ilk: quantifying the welfare of dairy cattle in history, 1750–1900
Abstract: The costs, benefits, and ethical considerations regarding animal welfare are a central element in modern capitalist agriculture, yet systematic quantitative historical insights are lacking. To overcome this, we seek to understand animal welfare in the Danish dairy sector from 1750 to 1900, a period marked by significant agricultural development and industrialization. By applying contemporary […]
Zombie International Currency: The Pound Sterling 1945–1971
Abstract: This paper examines the international role of sterling during the Bretton Woods era and argues that it was not a competitor to the U.S. dollar. I construct a novel dataset to measure the reserve role of sterling in Europe and sterling area countries. The postwar reserve role of sterling was limited to the sterling […]
Forced Migration and Local Economic Development: Evidence from Postwar Hungary
Abstract: We investigate the effects of forced migration on sending economies using the post-WW2 expulsion of German minorities from Hungary as a natural experiment. We combine historical and contemporary data sources to show that the forced migrations led to lasting reductions in economic activity. Plausible mechanisms driving this result appear to be sectoral change (shift […]
Reversing fortunes of German regions, 1926–2019: Boon and bane of early industrialization?
Abstract: This paper shows that nineteenth-century industrialization is an essential determinant of the pronounced changes in economic prosperity across German regions over the last 100 years. Using novel data on economic activity in 163 labor market regions in West Germany, we find that nearly half of them experienced a reversal of fortune, moving from the […]
Rueff Versus de Lattre: A French Money Doctors’ Duel for Influence Over de Gaulle
Abstract: In the early sixties, the U.S. and U.K. balance of payments deficits threatened the stability of Bretton Woods international monetary system. Jacques Rueff campaigned for its termination and the return to a system based only on gold, as in the nineteenth century. He encouraged French president Charles de Gaulle to publicly advocate the abandonment […]
Corporate taxes, leverage, and investment: evidence from Nazi-occupied Netherlands
Abstract: We examine the Netherlands around the Second World War, where the occupying Nazi regime overhauled the country’s corporate tax regime and introduced a profit tax of 55 per cent. We estimate that the new tax regime cost investors at least 300 million guilders, an amount equivalent to 5 per cent of Dutch GDP in […]
The Births, Lives And Deaths Of Corporations In Late Imperial Russia
Abstract: Enterprise creation, destruction and evolution support the transition to modern economic growth, yet these processes are poorly understood in industrialising contexts. We investigate Imperial Russia’s industrial development at the firm level by examining entry, exit and persistence of corporations. Relying on newly developed balance sheet panel data from every non-financial Russian corporation (more than […]
The Ends of 27 Big Depressions
Abstract: How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 […]
What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature
Abstract: What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected […]
The Last Free Traders? Interwar Trade Policy in the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies
Abstract: There has still been too little detailed work on the protectionism that emerged in the wake of the Great Depression. In this paper we explore the experiences of two countries that have been largely neglected in the literature, the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies (NEI). How did these traditionally free-trading economies respond to the […]
Historical roots of political extremism: The effects of Nazi occupation of Italy
Abstract: We study the impact of the Italian Civil War and Nazi occupation of Italy in 1943–45 on postwar political outcomes. The Communist Party, which was more active in the resistance movement, gained votes in areas where the Nazi occupation was both longer and harsher, mainly at the expense of centrist parties. This effect persists […]
‘Getting to Denmark’: the role of agricultural elites for development
Abstract: We explore the role of elites for development and the spread of industrialized dairying in Denmark in the 1880s. We demonstrate that the location of early proto-modern dairies, introduced by landowning elites from northern Germany in the eighteenth century, explains the location of industrialized dairying in 1890: an increase of one standard deviation in […]
Should History Change The Way We Think About Populism?
Abstract: This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were […]
Tracing Sustainability In The Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates 1850 – 2018
Abstract: We introduce a new database of historical Genuine Savings (GS), an indicator of sustainable development promoted by the World Bank and widely used in contemporary economic research. GS derives from the theoretical work on wealth accounting, and addresses shortcomings in conventional metrics of economic development by incorporating broader measures of saving and investment, including […]
The Nationalist Dilemma: A Global History of Economic Nationalism, 1776–Present
Summary: Nationalists think about the economy, Marvin Suesse argues, and this thinking matters once nationalists hold political power. Many nationalists seek to limit global exchange, but others prioritise economic development. The potential conflict between these two goals shapes nationalist policy making. Drawing on historical case studies from thirty countries – from the American Revolution to […]
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