Is gold a safe haven for investors?

Summary: The price of gold has risen in recent years, highlighting the role of this precious metal as a stable investment. While the value of gold is resilient and protected from inflation, its stability is not guaranteed in times of crisis. Cite as: Philip Fliers, Is gold a safe haven for investors? Economics Observatory (2024) […]

What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature

Abstract: What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected […]

Do managers matter? Management practices in post-COVID Northern Ireland

Abstract: Northern Ireland has a persistent productivity gap to the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland, as with the rest of the UK and Europe, also has a long tail of low productivity SMEs and micro businesses. An important contributor to a firm’s productivity is its management. Managers make decisions regarding the allocation of labour […]

The Good Friday Agreement at 25: has there been a peace dividend?

Abstract: The Good Friday Agreement ended a three decades-long conflict in Northern Ireland. Peace has brought some economic improvements, including lower unemployment, higher wages for low earners and the arrival of new industries. But progress in other areas – particularly productivity – has been limited. Cite as: Graham Brownlow, David Jordan and John Turner, ‘The […]

Should History Change The Way We Think About Populism?

Abstract: This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism  is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were […]

The Nationalist Dilemma: A Global History of Economic Nationalism, 1776–Present

Summary: Nationalists think about the economy, Marvin Suesse argues, and this thinking matters once nationalists hold political power. Many nationalists seek to limit global exchange, but others prioritise economic development. The potential conflict between these two goals shapes nationalist policy making. Drawing on historical case studies from thirty countries – from the American Revolution to […]

Failing to level up? Industrial policy and productivity in interwar Northern Ireland

Abstract: Northern Ireland’s productivity performance has persistently been the worst of any UK region. This is despite having the apparent benefit of subnational industrial policy since the 1920s. Can institutions – through the interaction between business and local policymakers – explain this longstanding productivity gap? Existing literature focuses on post-war policy in Northern Ireland, but […]

The spectre of terrorism and the stock market

Abstract: Terrorism is a major issue in the 21st century. In this paper we examine the effect of terrorism on the stock market. We go beyond previous studies to explore the spectre of terrorism on the market rather than terrorist activities. Using a narrative-based approach à la Shiller (2019), we find that the spectre of […]

The Northern Ireland Productivity Dashboard

Abstract: Northern Ireland has the worst productivity performance of any region in the UK. The most recent data shows productivity in Northern Ireland is 17% below the UK average. It also lags behind the Republic of Ireland, where productivity is around 29% higher than the UK average. This dashboard, produced for the Northern Ireland Productivity […]

Globalization

Abstract: This chapter written for the Oxford Handbook of Historical Political Economy argues that you cannot understand the history of globalization without taking political factors into account; and that you cannot understand the history of comparative economic development without taking globalization into account. Globalization compels us to take geography seriously and to think more like […]

Antitrust Policies and Profitability in Nontradable Sectors

Abstract: Firms in tradable sectors are more likely to be subject to external competition to limit market power, while nontradable firms are more dependent on domestic policies and institutions. This paper combines an antitrust index available for multiple countries with firm-level data from Orbis covering more than 12 million firms from 94 countries, including 20 […]

Folklore

Abstract: Folklore is the collection of traditional beliefs, customs, and stories of a community passed through the generations by word of mouth. We introduce to economics a unique catalog of oral traditions spanning approximately 1,000 societies. After validating the catalog’s content by showing that the groups’ motifs reflect known geographic and social attributes, we present […]