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Corporate taxes, leverage, and investment: evidence from Nazi-occupied Netherlands

Abstract: We examine the Netherlands around the Second World War, where the occupying Nazi regime overhauled the country’s corporate tax regime and introduced a profit tax of 55 per cent. We estimate that the new tax regime cost investors at least 300 million guilders, an amount equivalent to 5 per cent of Dutch GDP in […]

Is gold a safe haven for investors?

Summary: The price of gold has risen in recent years, highlighting the role of this precious metal as a stable investment. While the value of gold is resilient and protected from inflation, its stability is not guaranteed in times of crisis. Cite as: Philip Fliers, Is gold a safe haven for investors? Economics Observatory (2024) […]

Three Centuries of Corporate Governance in the UK

Abstract: As articulated by Adam Smith, one of the central issues facing companies is that managers will not run the business in the interests of its owners and will misuse resources. This ultimately has a detrimental consequence for the wealth of the nation. This survey reviews the nature and evolution of the corporate governance of […]

The Ends of 27 Big Depressions

Abstract: How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 […]

Banks and the Economy: Evidence from the Irish Bank Strike of 1966

Abstract: This paper studies a natural experiment in macroeconomic history: the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We use synthetic control to estimate how the economy would have evolved had the strike not happened. We find that economic activity slowed, deviating by 6% […]

Do managers matter? Management practices in post-COVID Northern Ireland

Abstract: Northern Ireland has a persistent productivity gap to the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland, as with the rest of the UK and Europe, also has a long tail of low productivity SMEs and micro businesses. An important contributor to a firm’s productivity is its management. Managers make decisions regarding the allocation of labour […]

Managed decline? Muddling through with the Sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74

Abstract: How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling’s international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the ‘sterling agreements’ of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a […]

Aristocratic Amateurs to Fat Cats? British CEOs in the Twentieth Century

Abstract: This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1,558 CEOs from Britain’s largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion […]

The anatomy of a bubble company: The London Assurance in 1720

Abstract: The London Assurance Company (LA), which incorporated during the bubble of 1720, experienced more dramatic price movements in its shares than the South Sea Company. This paper examines how incorporating during the bubble affected its long run performance. We show that the bubble in the Company’s share price was partly attributable to changes in […]

Tracing Sustainability In The Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates 1850 – 2018

Abstract: We introduce a new database of historical Genuine Savings (GS), an indicator of sustainable development promoted by the World Bank and widely used in contemporary economic research. GS derives from the theoretical work on wealth accounting, and addresses shortcomings in conventional metrics of economic development by incorporating broader measures of saving and investment, including […]

Was Marshall Right? Managerial Failure and Corporate Ownership in Edwardian Britain

Abstract: Alfred Marshall argued that the malaise of public companies in Edwardian Britain was due to the separation of ownership from control and a lack of professional management. In this paper, we examine the ownership and control of the c.1,700 largest British companies in 1911. We find that most public companies had a separation of […]

The Highs and the Lows: Bank Failures in Sweden through Inflation and Deflation, 1914-1926

Abstract: This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher’s ‘debt deflation theory’, we employ survival analysis to ‘predict’ which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, […]

Why did shareholder liability disappear?

Abstract: Why did shareholder liability disappear? We address this question by looking at its use by British insurance companies from 1830 until its complete disappearance by 1975. We explore three explanations for its demise: (1) regulation and government-provided policyholder protection meant that it was no longer required; (2) it had become de facto limited; and […]

Business Establishment Opposition to Southern Ireland’s Exit from the United Kingdom

Abstract: After more than a century of political and economic integration, Southern Ireland exited the United Kingdom in 1922. By identifying the leading business firms of the era and the political and religious allegiances of their owners, this paper explores the perspective of the Southern Irish business establishment on the issues involved. While the mass […]

The birth of inflation targeting: why did the ERM crisis happen?

Abstract: In September 1992, the UK was forced to withdraw from the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, as it was unable to keep the value of the pound above the limit specified by the agreement. There are lessons from three decades ago for today’s bout of high inflation. Cite this article: John […]

Business Creation and Political Turmoil: Ireland versus Scotland before 1900

Abstract: What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using newly collected data on business creation, we show that entrepreneurial activity in Ireland in the late nineteenth century was much lower than Scotland, and this divergence fluctuated over time. Several factors may have […]

Fringe banking and financialization: Pawnbroking in pre-famine and famine Ireland

Abstract: Pawnbroking, one of the oldest and most accessible forms of credit, was a common feature of life in pre-famine and famine Ireland. This article studies the role of pawnbroking in the Irish financial system during this important period, applying insights from modern studies on fringe banking. In the period under study, a formal tiered […]

What explains patenting behaviour during Britain’s Industrial Revolution?

Abstract: A recent re-evaluation of patenting during the British Industrial Revolution argues patentees were responsive to demand-side conditions. This view does not consider supply-side factors, such as a patentee’s skill or access to financial resources, as an alternative mechanism. I exploit a rich dataset of patentee occupations to investigate the role a patentee’s economic or […]

The growth and diversity of the Cape private capital market, 1892–1902

Abstract: The adoption of limited liability in the nineteenth century is considered to have boosted economic growth and expanded capital markets in Europe and North America. Despite similar legal changes in frontier markets such as South Africa, very few attempts have been made to analyse the economic effects thereof. After the Cape Joint Stock Company […]

Antitrust Policies and Profitability in Nontradable Sectors

Abstract: Firms in tradable sectors are more likely to be subject to external competition to limit market power, while nontradable firms are more dependent on domestic policies and institutions. This paper combines an antitrust index available for multiple countries with firm-level data from Orbis covering more than 12 million firms from 94 countries, including 20 […]

Bubbles in History

Abstract: Bubbles have become ubiquitous. This ubiquity has stimulated research over the past three decades into bubbles in history. In this article, we provide a systematic overview of research into historical bubbles. Our analysis reveals that there is no coherent approach to the study of bubbles and much of the debate has unhelpfully focussed on […]

Private Contracting, Law and Finance

Abstract: In the late nineteenth century Britain had almost no mandatory shareholder protections, but had very developed financial markets. We argue that private contracting between shareholders and corporations meant that the absence of statutory protections was immaterial. Using circa 500 articles of association from before 1900, we code the protections offered to shareholders in these […]